The Week in Context, 26Oct2020
Kansas COVID-19 Updates
Hello readers! Here’s the latest on how the situation in Kansas fits into the national context and how the US fits into the global context. Next time, I expect to go over the most recent White House Coronavirus Task Force report and some Kansas-specific data from the state.
The World
Globally, the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 disease has sickened > 43.1 million people (+5.5 million since last week) and killed 1,154,900 (+40,800 in the past week) as of this morning.
The US is ranked in the top color category for hot spots, where the dark red represents counties with >14 average daily case rate per 100,000 for the past week. Things continue to escalate in Europe. We are ranked 33rd in the world for weekly case rate over the past 7 days (last week, 36th). Our weekly case rate per 100,000 is 147 (up from 119). The top five countries for case rate per 100,000 in the past week are Andorra, Czech Republic, Belgium, Slovenia, and Armenia.
For deaths, our weekly death rate per 100,000 rose to 1.7 (last week, 1.5) and we are ranked #30 in the world for this (up from #32 last week). The top five countries for death rates per 100,000 in the most recent week are Andorra, Czech Republic, Argentina, Montenegro, and North Macedonia.
The United States
As hot spots go, they didn’t move that much this week but got more intense. They are mainly concentrated throughout the Midwest. Wisconsin is more filled in than last week. But the increases are also being seen in Utah and west Texas. As of this morning, there have been over 8.7 million cases and 225,158 deaths in the US. Keep in mind that both of these numbers are probably an under-count of the situation in our country.
Cases: Kansas is ranked #22 in the nation for 7-day case rate per 100,000, a decrease from #15 last week. Our case rate is 189 per 100,000 in the past 7 days (nearly the same as the 188 we recorded the previous week). So, when our case rate remains the same but our ranking drops, that indicates just how intense things are for other states in the country. The Kansas case rate is 29% higher than the national average. Of the top 10 states for 7-day case rate per 100,000, half are in the plains states or Midwest.
Kansas has three counties in the top 20 counties in the nation list for cases per 100,000 in the past week. They are Norton (#1, 5204 per 100,000 in past 7 days), Sheridan (#11, 1666 cases per 100,000 past 7 days) and Decatur(#20, 1238 cases per 100,000). These counties are all next to each other in the northwest corner of the state. Kansas has no cities in the top 20 cities in America for case rate per 100,000.
Testing: In the past two weeks, Kansas has an average daily test rate of 142 tests per 100,000, the same as last week. This week, Kansas is ranked 46th in the nation for test rate (down from #44 last week). Together with the Harvard Global Health Institute, the New York Times estimates that Kansas is performing at 15% of the ideal testing target. The ideal testing target is based on local disease rates. In that same time, the Kansas percent positive rate has been 19%. Meanwhile, the goal set by the World Health Organization is to be at or below 5% for a sustained period of time. When you have a percent positive rate higher than 5%, it indicates you probably are missing cases with your existing test strategy and need to scale up.
Hospitalizations: The US Department of Health and Human Services indicates that in Kansas, 5.52% of all hospitalized patients are there for COVID-19, either confirmed or suspected. This is a decrease compared to the 5.86% reported during the previous week. The top three states in the nation for this metric are North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana. These data come from the Health and Human Services dashboard which was last updated this morning (26Oct2020).
Deaths: As our cases per 100,000 have remained about the same this week compared to the previous week, we are seeing an increase in our deaths per 100,000 in the past 7 days. In fact, Kansas is ranked #4 in the US for death rate per population. The recent Kansas death rate increased this week from 3.1 to 4.0 per 100,000. Meanwhile, the national average is 1.7 per 100,000. In other words, the Kansas death rate is more than twice as high as the national average.
Influenza: Here’s the latest look at FluView, showing how influenza-like illness compares across states. The map below depicts how states compare when considering the average percent of outpatient (meaning, not warranting a hospital admission) visits for influenza-like illness for the current week compared to non-influenza season weeks.
Compared to last week, ILI activity decreased in Iowa, West Virginia and North Carolina. But we saw an increase for Connecticut. Keep in mind that influenza is not a mandatory notifiable disease for public health departments like COVID-19 is. But there is a robust surveillance network for tracking trends. So we aren’t likely to see case counts and death counts like we do for COVID-19 because we are seeing estimates for influenza rather than actual numbers. Both diseases feature a wide spectrum of disease severity that can make it hard to identify all cases. You can read the weekly report from Kansas Department of Public Health here.
Kansas
Here is how the state of Kansas is looking based on the risk tool from the Harvard Global Health Institute. The color coding is explained below the map. In short, green is good, red is bad.
This week, things seem to have improved in the eastern half of the state. But things remain red for much of the western half of the state. There are just 10 counties that are green or yellow; last week there were 12. In other words, 90% of the state’s counties are in the red or orange categories.
In total, today there was a net increase of 2446 cases since the Friday report and the new statewide total is 78,676. There was a net increase of 62 hospital admissions and 1 death. The updated death total is 976, for a case fatality rate of 1.2%. The percent positive rate is increasing compared to where we were at the start of the month.
In the graph below, you can see how recently reported cases were distributed by age for last week and the week prior. Many age groups saw increases. The only exception was 18-24 year olds.
The next graph shows how recent hospital admissions were distributed by age. Most age groups saw an increase, with the exception of 10-17, 34-44, and 75-84.
Finally, the graph below shows how recently reported deaths were distributed by age. There were increases for most adult age groups with the exception of 18-24 and 45-54.
That’s it for today. Make good choices and stay safe!
References
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html
https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-capacity
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/public-health-criteria-to-adjust-public-health-and-social-measures-in-the-context-of-COVID-19
https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas
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My Ph.D. is in Medical Microbiology and Immunology. I've worked at places like Creighton University, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention and Mercer University School of Medicine. All thoughts are my professional opinion and should not be considered medical advice.