The Week in Context, 14Dec2020
Kansas COVID-19 Updates
Historic Day
Man, today was historic for two completely opposite reasons. First, the first doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine have been administered. The first dose was administered to an ICU nurse in New York. This is the beginning of the end of the pandemic. It’s a really, really important step in this pandemic. A reminder, the “end of the pandemic” is a months long process. So please keep wearing your mask, keeping socially distant, etc.
However, the opposite reason why today is historic is because today we surpassed 300,000 deaths in the US due to COVID-19. In Kansas, the flags are flying at half mast to mark this somber occasion. My alma mater, Creighton University, a Catholic school in Omaha held a mass specifically to remember those we’ve lost to COVID-19. I want to offer my most sincere condolences to all my readers who have lost someone precious to them in this pandemic. I am so profoundly sorry for the pain and anguish you have gone through and the way that the pandemic has prevented you from grieving with your family in the way that might help you most. I also want to offer my condolences to the healthcare workers who held the hands of the dying until their last painful breath, each of you standing in for hundreds of families and channeling that love and strength for so many. It has been a weighty responsibility, I am certain, and I know you must be so weary. For the rest of us, please honor the lives we have lost by making decisions that they no longer can. Let’s get to the end of this pandemic with as many of our loved ones and friends as possible. We are so much closer to the end of the pandemic now with the vaccine than we have been since the pandemic began.
The World
Globally, the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 disease has sickened > 71.5 million people (+4.4 million since last week) and killed at least 1,613,100 (+75,700 in the past week) as of this morning.
The US is ranked in the second highest color category for hot spots. We are ranked #8 in the world for average daily case rate per 100,000 people over the past 7 days (last week, 12th) with a rate of 63.3 compared to 59.3 last week. The top five countries for average daily case rate per 100,000 in the past week are Georgia, Serbia, Lithuania, Croatia, and Luxembourg. Things have intensified slightly for Mexico and Brazil. Things have improved for countries like Iran and Kazakhstan.
For deaths, our average daily death rate per 100,000 over the past week is 0.7 (unchanged from the previous week), and we are ranked #25 in the world for this (last week we were ranked #26). The top five countries for average daily death rate per 100,000 in the most recent week are Slovenia, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Hungary.
The United States
As of this morning, there have been over 16.3 million cases (+1.5 million in the past week) and 299,328 deaths in the US (+17,015 in past week). We will likely cross 300,000 today, as a nation. Keep in mind that both of these numbers are probably an under-count of the situation in our country.
This week we see things have gotten slightly better for parts of the Midwest. The top five states in the nation for average daily case rate in the past 7 days are Rhode Island, Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio, and Arizona. The top five states in the nation for average daily death rate in the past 7 days are South Dakota, North Dakota, Iowa, Wyoming, and New Mexico.
The table below tells you where we are this week and how that compares to the previous week (in parentheses). The data for everything but the percent of inpatients with COVID-19 comes from the New York Times coronavirus tracker and is current as of this morning. The hospital data comes from the HHS Protect Public Data Hub that was last updated on 09Dec2020.
Next, let’s look at how seasonal influenza is impacting different states across the US. You can consult FluView any time you’d like to see this map and other data visualizations. You can read the weekly report from Kansas Department of Health and Environment here. The maps below show the current year for the 49th week of the year (left side) and the same week a year ago (right side).
There were not any huge shifts this week compared to last week. Overall, influenza activity is low in the US right now. Compare that to where we were a year ago for week 49 in the map on the right. The things we’re doing to limit the transmission of COVID-19 are also interrupting the transmission of influenza. Good job! Remember, it’s not too late to get your flu shot. Please do so, if you haven’t already.
Kansas
The map below comes from the Harvard Global Health Institute tool. But as red as this map looks, there is actually cause for optimism here. Last week, all but one county was red. This week there are two green counties and two orange ones. These are small victories but exciting nonetheless.
Today in Kansas there were 13,015 new tests reported today from over the weekend. Of those, 36% were positive. That’s an eye-popping number. But the trend overall is that our percent positive rate is trending down.
There were 4724 new cases reported today from over the weekend. That’s 17.6% less than last Monday’s total. So that’s good news too. Cases are decreasing for most age groups and that trend has been consistent over the past week or so.
There were 95 patients newly admitted for COVID-19 over the weekend and 20 admissions to the ICU. The number of patients admitted for COVID-19 is trending down over the past two weeks.
There were 37 deaths newly reported since the Friday update from Kansas Department of Health and the Environment. That is a mercifully small number for Kansas. I should note that a lot of long term care facilities don’t report their deaths over the weekend, so Monday’s have been low number days in the past. But still, that’s about half the number we had last Monday.
Overall, there are some good news items for Kansas and let’s hope that continues.
References
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?name=styln-coronavirus®ion=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=Interactive&impression_id=97ba8610-2dbb-11eb-a0bf-4f82d045d121&variant=1_Show
https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluviewinteractive.htm
https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-capacity
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My Ph.D. is in Medical Microbiology and Immunology. I've worked at places like Creighton University, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention and Mercer University School of Medicine. All thoughts are my professional opinion and should not be considered medical advice.