Kansas COVID Weekly, 21Jan2021
Kansas COVID-19 Updates
Vaccine Update
Kansas is ranked #46 in the nation in terms of vaccine doses distributed to the state per 100,000 by the federal government, and #37 in terms of persons receiving at least 1 dose per 100,000 residents. So the state is outperforming its supply - a better situation than most.
You can see the Kansas vaccine information page here. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Vaccine Data Tracker is also a useful too, but be advised that the Kansas numbers are only updated with them on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
So far, the vaccine is proving to be very safe so far, confirming the findings of the clinical trial data for both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. According to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System there have been just 165 people who had an emergency room visit associated with the COVID-19 vaccine as of last Friday. It should be noted that these are just associations and are pending investigation to determine whether the vaccine was the cause of the person’s emergency or if it was due to other factors (i.e. car accident, etc). Still, 165 people (worst case scenario) with an ER visit of 12.2M+ doses administered so far is only 0.0013%. I will be getting my vaccine as soon as it is made available to me. I would encourage you to do so also.
Combined Data
The graph below shows us how some of our most important data points are moving over time. Cases are represented by the blue line and correspond with the left y-axis. All other metrics (hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths) correspond with the right y-axis.
We can see that there was a downturn and surge in most things right around Christmas - this is likely an artifact of holiday closures and data catchup afterwards. However, we had seen sustained increases over the past couple weeks leading into the most recent one. Thankfully, cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all trending down now. However, ICU admissions have increased slightly.
I’m still awaiting the most recent White House Coronavirus Task Force report for Kansas, however I have the one for Georgia that includes the national rankings. The 17Jan2021 Georgia report indicates that Kansas is ranked #20 for new case rate per 100,000 (red zone), #20 for test positivity (red zone), #28 for new COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100 beds, and #3 for new deaths per 100,000. The dates of data collection for this week’s report were 09 -15Jan2021. You can read the Georgia report in full here.
Testing
The graph below shows us how Kansas is doing for tests performed (blue line, left y-axis) and the percent of those tests that are positive (red line, right y-axis) on a weekly basis. The goal line for test positivity (5%) is indicated by the gray, dashed line.
Test output has increased significantly since late October but has declined in the past month. The percent of tests that are positive has also been declining and that’s a good thing. The most recent week’s positivity rate was 8.2%. So we’re still above the 5% goal line, but the rate is decreasing. Test positivity is helpful for telling us if we are doing enough testing. The idea is that we want 95% of the tests we perform to be negative - it’s an indication that we are testing widely enough to not miss many cases. The higher the positivity rate, the more cases we are likely missing and those missed cases contribute to ongoing disease transmission in the community. The higher the positivity rate, the more likely our current case count is an underrepresentation of the disease burden.
Cases
In the past week there have been 11,371 cases newly reported by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment. That’s a decrease of 25% compared to the previous week. The graph below shows us where those cases are coming from in terms of county type. You can check your county’s classification here.
The state average is shown with the black line. It has decreased from the peak experienced in mid-November, was been stable for the past month or so and shows a steep decline in the past week. That means things are getting better but there is still a LOT of disease in the community. That’s a vulnerable place to be, because that means there’s a lot of disease that could drive further increases given the right conditions. It means that the things we are doing to limit transmission are probably working, but we can’t afford to ease up on those efforts right now. Case rate is highest in urban counties and best in frontier counties (the most sparsely populated counties). The top five counties for 14-day case rate per 100,000 are Geary, Mitchell, Rush, Woodson, and Harper.
The map below comes from the Brown School of Public Health. I’ve previously referred to this as the Harvard tool, but the person responsible for the tool has moved from Harvard to Brown University and taken the resource with him. It grades each county’s level of risk, based on the average daily cases per 100,000 over the most recent 7 days. Risk is greatest for red counties and least for green counties. A few weeks ago, the entire state was red. Now, we see definite signs of improvement, especially for the western half of the state.
Next, let’s look at where the most recent week’s cases are coming from in terms of age groups. The graph below shows 8 week timelines for each age group with the most recent week shown in maroon. One heads up, the “week” of 19-23Dec was a shorter week than usual so that week’s data are an anomaly.
This week we saw decreases in cases for each age group. That’s certainly good news.
Hospitalizations
The graph below shows how many hospital admissions and ICU admissions for COVID-19 have been reported each Monday, Wednesday and Friday by the KDHE. I don’t have a trendline here, but you can see that the trend for hospital admissions has been upward for the past several months. So we aren’t really seeing things move down the way that we would like to see.
This week there were 390 newly reported hospital admissions compared to the week prior, a decrease of 9%. The graph below shows us where those hospital admissions are coming from in terms of age group, over the past 8 weeks. I want to again remind you to not worry too much about the week of 19-23Dec because it was a short week.
What we see from the graph above is that hospital admissions are increasing for those 18-24, and 75-84. However, hospitalizations have decreased or remained steady for all other age groups.
An important question is how hospitals are coping with the burden of COVID-19 and one way to measure that is how COVID-19 patients compare to their overall patient load (sometimes referred to as the patient census). Among the most critical resources for severe cases of COVID-19 are ICU beds and ventilators and the staff that support those resources. The COVID-19 burden for both of these resources has been elevated but stable for the period between 15Nov and the start of the new year. The COVID-19 patient census for both ICU beds and ventilators has decreased since the start of the new year and hopefully that trend continues.
According to the HHS Community Profile Report for 20Jan2021, Kansas is ranked #28 in the nation for new COVID-19 admissions per 100 beds. This is the same source of data that’s used for the White House Coronavirus Task Force reports, but updated daily rather than weekly.
Deaths
Using the HHS Community Profile Report (date 20Jan2021), Kansas has the sixth highest newly reported death rate per 100,000 residents in the country. You’ll note this ranking differs from the White House Coronavirus Task Force Report (where Kansas is #3). The HHS Community Profile Reports are the source material for the White House reports, but the dates are different here with the HHS report being more current.
In the most recent week, Kansas has reported a net increase of 220 deaths, a decrease of 33% compared to the previous week. The graph below shows us how deaths have trended over time, adjusted for each county type’s population size. The statewide average is shown in the black line.
The death rate for Kansas remains very high, but lower than the record set around 01Jan2021. It’s possible that we have peaked for deaths, but we should know more in the coming days. Death rate is worst in rural counties and best in frontier counties as of this week. The counties with the highest 14 day death rate are Morris, Phillips, Kiowa, McPherson and Comanche. Sixty two of Kansas’ 105 counties reported zero deaths in the past 14 days.
We can also see where deaths are coming from in terms of age group in the graph below. Like the other demographic graphs, this shows 8-week timelines for each age group. This week we saw decreases for all age groups other than those 35 - 44.
In closing, there are signs in the data that perhaps we are descending from the fall/winter surge. However, it takes a much more concerted effort and a longer time to descend from a surge than to ascend it. So we need to continue to work to reduce transmission in our communities. I know we are all tired of wearing masks and social distancing. But the reality is that until we achieve herd immunity (estimated to be 70-90% of the population) with the vaccine, those masks and social distancing remain our best defense against the virus. Please continue to do what you can to limit disease transmission.
References
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
https://www.kansasvaccine.gov/
http://www.ipsr.ku.edu/ksdata/ksah/population/popden2.pdf
https://beta.healthdata.gov/National/COVID-19-Community-Profile-Report/gqxm-d9w9
https://beta.healthdata.gov/National/COVID-19-Community-Profile-Report/gqxm-d9w9
https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas
Kansas COVID-19 Updates is a free newsletter that depends on reader support. If you wish to subscribe please click the link below. There are free and paid options available.
My Ph.D. is in Medical Microbiology and Immunology. I've worked at places like Creighton University, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention and Mercer University School of Medicine. All thoughts are my professional opinion and should not be considered medical advice.