I’ve had this song, “A Long December” by Counting Crows, stuck in my head for the last few days as we close down the month of December in a difficult year. I sort of marvel at how relevant this song is now, 24 years after it was released.
The smell of hospitals in winter
And the feeling that it's all a lot of oysters, but no pearls
All at once you look across a crowded room
To see the way that light attaches to a girlDrove up to Hillside Manor sometime after two a.m.
And talked a little while about the year
I guess the winter makes you laugh a little slower,
Makes you talk a little lower about the things you could not show herAnd it's been a long December and there's reason to believe
Maybe this year will be better than the last
I can't remember all the times I tried to tell my myself
To hold on to these moments as they passAnd it's one more day up in the canyon
And it's one more night in Hollywood
It's been so long since I've seen the ocean I guess I should
Anyway, as we close a year that has brought so much upheaval, sickness and death, I want to point out that not everything has been bad. I hope that you are able to gain perspective on the things that went well this year, even as we eagerly look forward to 2021. Being mindful of these good things has been helpful to me. For me, I have really benefitted from the ways the pandemic has made me slow down and prioritize my health and wellbeing. It also helped to re-calibrate the importance of family time. While I certainly hope that we are back to “normal” sooner rather than later, I hope to keep some of the habits I’ve developed this year in the post-pandemic future.
I have the latest White House Coronavirus Task Force report for Kansas. We’ll go through it along with the rest of the latest numbers. Kansas is ranked #28 for new cases per 100,000, #18 for test positivity, #25 for new hospital admissions per 100 beds, and #22 for new deaths per 100,000.
The WHCTF “alerts” for us are provided below. They warn that data will be weird due to delayed reporting over the holidays. They say that things *seem* to be getting better in parts of the country, but that momentum can shift very quickly bringing about a new surge. They tell us that “no unmasked public gatherings are safe and no indoor private gatherings are safe without all members fully masked, unless all members are actively taking the same precautions and regularly test negative.” This latter part means the people in your bubble are okay. But if you don’t live together and aren’t following the same precautions, then it is unsafe to be together while unmasked.
Here’s the summary table from the report.
Testing
Testing output, adjusted for population, is increasing for both the nation and the state. Kansas has come a long way to narrow the gap between its test rate and that of the US.
Despite these big improvements in test output, Kansas still has a higher percent positive rate than the national average. However, the rate is decreasing and that is definitely a good sign. We are still a long way from the 5% goal line though. This means that we are likely missing cases in the community.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the next WHCTF report shows an increase for the Kansas percent positive rate. Because that’s what we’re seeing in the day to day updates from Kansas Department of Health and Environment. We’ve seen a resurgence for this metric since right before Christmas, sustained over several days. A reminder, some of the data are going to look weird for the next couple weeks due to laboratory closures over the holidays. But the overall trend for the past week has been that percent positive rate is bouncing back.
The US Department of Health and Human Services has begun providing expanded state and county level data for a variety of metrics in their Community Profile Reports. Among the data they provide is the turnaround time for tests - from the date of collection to the date of report. The 26Dec2020 HHS Community Profile Report indicates that Kansas is doing pretty well for this, with 96% of tests reported within 3 days. You can view a live image of the map if you click on it in order to hover over a state of interest and see its number.
Cases
We’re seeing a bit of a post-Christmas increase in the case rate. It’s probably too soon to tell if this is going to be a sustained problem or just the noise of day to day and week to week variation. But what I will tell you is that it takes a lot more time and work to bring disease levels down after a surge than it took to reach the peak. We still have a lot of work to do. There are increases for all county types other than Rural and Frontier.
Here’s how that increase in cases is distributed across age groups. In the graph below, you’re looking at 8-week timelines for each age group, side by side. The most recent week’s data are in maroon. There were increases for all age groups.
Hospitalizations
In the most recent week we are seeing some increases in hospital admissions for most age groups as well. Keep in mind that these increases are before the anticipated effects of Christmas gatherings.
Hospital and ventilator demand for COVID-19 patients has leveled off over the past couple months. However, it has leveled at a very high level and we have not yet seen any sign of decrease. The WHCTF report indicates that the COVID-19 admission rate per 100 beds in Kansas is less than the national average (17 versus 21).
However, the WHCTF also indicates that 27% of Kansas hospitals are reporting supply shortages of PPE and other equipment and 36% of Kansas hospitals are reporting staff shortages. These are both improvements over the previous week, but still uncomfortably high. Please continue to do what you can to limit disease transmission to preserve healthcare capacity.
Deaths
This week we are seeing a pretty significant jump in the 7-day death rate for semi-urban and densely-settled rural counties in the state. And the overall trend for the state is a continued increase in the 7-day death rate per 100,000. You can check to see how your county is classified here.
Here’s how the most recent week’s deaths were distributed by age group.
Unfortunately, we see increases in deaths for most age groups relative to the previous week. If these deaths are being reported in a timely manner to the state, the timing of these increases is compatible with people who may have been exposed at Thanksgiving gatherings.
Here’s a look at the combined data for cases (blue line, left y-axis), hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths. All four metrics show an increase this week compared to last week.
Again, because the data are weird this week with delayed reporting, it’s kind of hard to tell where we are. However, the signs so far point to increases for test positivity, cases, hospitalizations and deaths for many age groups. It’s not too late to make an important difference here in the trajectory of the pandemic for Kansas. First and foremost, please do not gather this evening for New Years Eve celebrations outside of your immediate household or your bubble of people who observe the same precautions as you. This is especially important if you gathered for Christmas, because you would be contagious right now, a week later. It’s sort of the perfect storm of infection to have these holidays spaced 7 days apart.
If you are a person who gathered for Christmas with people outside of your household, please get a test for COVID-19. You should assume that you are infected and self-quarantine until you know for sure otherwise. You are a threat to others right now. If you are a person who is >65 years of age or who has underlying medical conditions, this is a good time to shelter in place and limit your risk of exposure. Because the people who gathered at Christmas, and likely got infected, are contagious right now. If they were willing to ignore the public health guidance and gather anyway, they likely aren’t following the advice to self-quarantine either. I want you to be safe.
That’s it for today. Happy New Year!
References
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UUVAQmC2prPXF3Ppq2H722msJm1GHbg8/view?usp=sharing
http://www.ipsr.ku.edu/ksdata/ksah/population/popden2.pdf
https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas